Will Google+ Cross the Chasm?

The Google+ button is everywhere. Reports are saying it is more wide spread than the twitter button. Google just sped up the button by 3 times, so now it will load even faster on all those websites.  But with all these great reports about Google+, is it really holding up?

Many have questioned if it will hold up against Facebook. Facebook is the leader in social networks, however it is not without criticism. The Google+ draw is that it answers some of those criticisms, like privacy. But is that enough?

Reports have been that the users are primarily early adapters, “while important, are not great predictors of the success of a social network.”

Technology Curve: Crossing the Chasm

Early adopters are integral for the adoption of technology. They are the ones that vet the tech and help usher it into the early majority. But the chasm is the challenge. Crossing the chasm is the challenge of any new tech. In fact, tech will live or die depending on if it can make the crossing.

The early majority are the people who will usher a new tech into the main stream. They are the ones who are considered the trend setters and other people follow their lead. But the jump from early adopter to early majority is not easy. Right now Google+ is trying to make the leap.  Though early indications are not hopeful.

Early reports are showing that Google+ visitors are down 3%, or 1.79 million, and the time spent on the site is down 10%.  The time spent on the site being down is a bigger indicator to me than visitors. Google+ is still invite based and many of the early majority will not think to ask for an invite, and the early adopters will like not think to give them. Hence part of the problem with crossing the chasm. But Google can solve that problem easily by opening up registration, which I expect they will do relatively soon.

However, time spent on the site should be going up, especially with more and more people signing up to the site. What this says is that the content on Google+ is not captivating enough to keep people on it. Facebook focused on that when they started, and have maintained the ability to keep people exploring their network. Google+’s inability to do this could be evidence of their lack of experience with social networks.

So the big question: Will Google+ cross the chasm?

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